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2006: Elections in Hungary... again
In 2006, Hungary is facing elections... again. However there is more than six months until the actual event, many signs indicate that the major parties are on the move. There are no TV spots, and only very few posters can be seen on the streets so far, but in the Parliament, the campaign has already begun. Leaders of the future coalition partners have already started negotiating their would-be agenda. Politicians are emphasizing the difference between their party and "the other side" more and more aggressively. This seems to be the beginning of another violent campaign, very much like the one we witnessed four years ago. While there is much more to come, and some of the voters will probably become more and more alienated from politics, the campaign itself, and the promises of the parties have smaller effect on the results than the average people would believe.
Just like at the past elections, the choice has already been made. It was made last time, when the socialists were elected, or, if we look deeper into its origins, it comes from the years before the transition in 1989. As time passes, it becomes more and more clear that the previous elections, and the upcoming few ones too, are decided by the masses who are not used to make such decisions. Many were raised, and lived under the Communist system, in peace and relative prosperity, and now the only thing most of them notice is that their lives have been getting worse and worse since the early 90's.
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From an objective point of view, the political parties have little responsibility in this: in the early years after '89 they most certainly did all they could to make the transition as smooth and economically successful as possible. But most of the voters - especially some of the older ones - are far from being objective, and they blame their decaying life conditions on the parties. This leads us to understanding the most probable outcome of the 2006 elections.
Experience shows that if a leading party is unable to bring the "land of plenty" to the - mostly pessimistic - Hungarian people, it is bound to fail on the next election. And if we add that the "land of plenty" is only an illusion, we can already see the two parties of today emerging from the blur of the post-communist 90's, and racing - unsuccessfully - for another four years of leadership at each election. But there's no need to worry: while this tends to be the outcome of the next, and probably the upcoming few votes, new generations may bring a new, open-minded approach to politics. And with it, hopefully, more civilized elections.
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